Revisiting Regime Transitions: Insights From an Expanded Data Set Covering the Arab Spring and Other Post-2010 Autocratic Breakdown Events.
July 2025. 28th IPSA World Congress, Seoul, Korea: Panel RC13.12 (After Autocratization: Successful Resistance and the Challenge of Re-democratization).
Introduced the AT-ERDS data set; compared preliminary findings to those in Geddes, Wright, and Frantz (2014).
Insert Title Here.
Forthcoming.
Follow-up to August 2024 working paper, continuing to quantitatively explore regime failure contagion.
Revisiting Regime Transitions: Insights From an Expanded Data Set Covering the Arab Spring and Other Post-2010 Autocratic Breakdown Events.
July 2025. Accepted for presentation at the 28th IPSA World Congress, Seoul, Korea.
Not Just Neighbors: An Empirical Study of Autocratic Breakdown Contagion Using Geometric Modeling of Contextual Similarity.
August 2024. Submitted as Bachelors dissertation to University College London, received First Class grade.
Quantitatively tested an original theory on the contagion of autocratic breakdown across regimes using a custom-built data set, geometric modeling of high-dimensional data, and advanced statistical methods in R to quantify similarities between contexts faced by domestic actors.
AT-ERDS (Expanded Regime Data Set).
A data set of autocratic regimes from 1946-2023 to be used in quantitative research of regime transitions.