My research focuses on authoritarian regimes, political transitions, and the diffusion of autocratic breakdown. I am particularly interested in using quantitative and computational methods to examine how domestic political change is shaped by relationships between states and by changes in the international environment.
My current work builds on research begun during my undergraduate degree at UCL and centers on the development and analysis of AT-ERDS, an extended data set of authoritarian regimes and regime transitions from 1946 to 2023.
Revisiting Regime Transitions: Insights From an Expanded Data Set Covering the Arab Spring and Other Post-2010 Autocratic Breakdown Events.
July 2025. 28th IPSA World Congress, Seoul, Korea: Panel RC13.12 (After Autocratization: Successful Resistance and the Challenge of Re-democratization).
Presented research using AT-ERDS to revisit established findings on authoritarian regime breakdown and transition. The paper examines whether patterns identified in earlier research remain robust when the empirical record is extended through 2023, including the Arab Spring and its aftermath. The presentation introduced AT-ERDS and compared preliminary results from the extended data set with findings reported by Geddes, Wright, and Frantz.
Master's Dissertation - Working Paper.
2026. In progress.
Follow-up to August 2024 paper, continuing to quantitatively explore regime failure contagion.
Revisiting Regime Transitions: Insights From an Expanded Data Set Covering the Arab Spring and Other Post-2010 Autocratic Breakdown Events.
July 2025. Presented at the 28th IPSA World Congress, Seoul, Korea.
Available to IPSA members via the Conference Proceedings library (non-members can download here).
Not Just Neighbors: An Empirical Study of Autocratic Breakdown Contagion Using Geometric Modeling of Contextual Similarity.
August 2024. Submitted as Bachelors dissertation to University College London, received First Class grade.
Quantitatively tested an original theory on the contagion of autocratic breakdown across regimes using a custom-built data set, geometric modeling of high-dimensional data, and advanced statistical methods in R to quantify similarities between contexts faced by domestic actors.
AT-ERDS (Expanded Regime Data Set).
AT-ERDS is an original research data set extending the Geddes, Wright, and Frantz authoritarian-regimes data through 2023 and incorporating additional contextual variables for the study of authoritarian regime transitions.
The project was developed to enable replication and reassessment of established findings using an expanded empirical record, particularly in light of political developments since 2010. It supports research into autocratic breakdown, democratization, regime-transition outcomes, and the domestic and international conditions associated with political change.
AT-ERDS provides the empirical foundation for my continuing research on authoritarian regime transitions.